Digital crime to boom as downturn blooms
With the economic downturn affecting every corner of the globe, it is perhaps no surprise that it is likely to affect hi-tech criminals over the next 12 months.
In contrast to many ordinary people, hi-tech criminals are likely to see opportunities to prosper rather than suffer in the downturn.
So say some experts looking forwards to 2009 and what it will mean for the computer security world.
"Crime tends to rise when you have more unemployment," said Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer at F-Secure.
"If you look, in general, where the attacks are coming from you can find social reasons behind them," he said.
"It's not a technical problem, it's social," he said.
Layoffs of many people familiar with net technology may tempt more into crime, he said, simply because their chances of being caught are slim. Equally, he said, the punishments for those that are caught are not harsh.
Those that did turn to hi-tech crime would find, he said, an underground service economy that will sell them all the bits they need to get started as a net criminal.
Some security firms fear that making people redundant could also trigger a wave of crime as aggrieved workers strike back at their employers.
This could mean that the intellectual property that a company relies on to keep going, such as its customer database, is copied and walks out of the door when employees pack up and leave.
"The damage that insiders can do should not be underestimated. It can take just a few minutes for an entire database that has taken years to build to be copied to a CD or USB stick," said Adam Bosnian, a spokesman for Cyber-Ark.
"With a faltering economy companies need to be especially vigilant about protecting their most sensitive data against nervous or disgruntled employees," he said.
"I would imagine that fraud is going to increase next year," said Carl Clump, chief executive of Retail Decisions that helps firms spot and tackle credit card fraud.
Even with the global economic slump, he said, fraud had been increasing year on year and there was no reason to expect that 2009 would buck that trend.
Widespread economic malaise would only act as a fillip to that rising tide, he said.
"It's a lucrative area and it's relatively easy to do," said Mr Clump.
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